In the marble drawing activity, what misconception does the second student's probability statement indicate?

The second student's probability statement likely reflects a misunderstanding of dependent events, which would indicate that they are not considering how previous draws from the marble set affect the probabilities of subsequent draws. In scenarios involving drawing marbles from a limited set, the outcome of each draw can influence the composition of the remaining marbles, thus changing the probabilities. If this student assumed independence in their calculation, they would have overlooked the fact that the outcome of one draw directly impacts the odds of subsequent draws, leading them to an erroneous conclusion about likelihoods.

Understanding the difference between independent and dependent events is fundamental in probability. Independent events are those where the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of another, while dependent events are characterized by a scenario where the outcomes are interconnected. Thus, recognizing the type of events being dealt with in the probability questions is critical for making accurate predictions and calculations.